Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that split the country and triggered chaos, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the political, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in academia but scarcely any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author endorses unity or the status quo. Both composes two pieces that strive for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and societal data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they prefer unity but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his era is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a feckless official who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid points, he stated. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will in the end lose but all factions has has valuable insights to gain from the opposing arguments."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
